MACRO LEDGER
In-depth macroeconomic analysis on global markets, combining proprietary research with actionable investment insights. New posts weekly.
The Bull Case
NVIDIA trades at 25x while Walmart trades at 46x. The Mag 7 premium vs the S&P 493 is at a 10-year low. Software is being sold on AI fear, not fundamentals. Iran risk is fading faster than consensus expects. We break down seven mispriced fears and why the bull case for QQQ and SPY only needs
The SaaS Moat: Who Survives the Software Reset
Software sentiment is the worst it's been in a generation. IGV, the broadest software ETF on the market, has shed 28% from its September 2025 highs, posting its
What Happens When The Bet Against America Fails?
There’s a narrative sweeping through markets right now that feels almost irresistible. The dollar is debasing. Emerging markets are finally having their moment.
The Real Reason Bitcoin Can't Bounce
The Setup The setup looks almost too clean. Gold is ripping higher in what's shaping up to be a generational move, up more than 55% in 2025 with nearly 50 all-t
Tariff Rulings: Maybe No Outcome Is Best
Tariff Purgatory The Supreme Court keeps dodging the biggest trade policy decision in a generation. Markets keep waiting. And here's the uncomfortable truth: th
What Happens When the Bear Case Fails to Escalate
The Macro Update This is the moment investors get trapped: the risks are still real, but the market stops acting as if it cares. It has been nearly three months
2025 Annual Letter
Most investors will remember this year for the headline number: the S&P 500 up 17.9%. Fewer will remember how close it came to breaking them along the way. A br
How Systematic Trading Breaks the Emotion Loop
Most investors think their decisions are driven by research. In reality, their decisions are driven by emotion long before a single chart or data point is ever
When Tailwinds Disappear and the Headwinds Start to Bite
The Macro Update Markets have entered a stretch where every bounce feels fragile and every headline seems to hit harder than the last. Investors keep searching
What Risk-Off Really Means (and How We Profit From It)
Understanding the Regimes We identify risk regimes by analyzing the growth impulses within our macro regime system. By tracking the four macro outcomes: Expansi
How We Plan to Play a Slowdown: Positioning for the Next Regime Shift
It’s no surprise that we have shifted from a Risk-On to a Risk-Off risk regime. and our models caught the shift in real time. On October 10, 2025, the signals f
The Growing Evidence Behind a Global Risk-Off Turn
When markets feel calmest, that’s often when the real shifts begin. Our system triggered a risk-off signal on Friday, October 10th, and by the close on Monday,
From Strength to Stagflation: Inside the Market’s Quiet Regime Change
It's So Over Anyone who’s been following our work knows we don’t chase headlines or panic at the first sign of a dip. We stay grounded in data, not emotion. Ove
This Beat Covered Call ETFs
Income investing has entered a new era. Traditional sources like dividends and bonds no longer dominate the conversation, investors are turning to more dynamic
Understanding Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Composition
Gross domestic product, or GDP, is often described as the single number that defines the health of an economy. It captures the total value of goods and services
When Growth Wobbles and Inflation Holds: What Comes Next?
Growth Markets are celebrating fresh highs, but beneath the surface, the seeds of the next phase may already be forming. Over the past several weeks, price acti
Everything You Need to Know About Today's FOMC
Market Positioning Today’s FOMC meeting delivered further clarity on what the Fed is watching before it pushes further on easing, and the market’s reaction is t
This Is How Melt-Ups Start
The Fed is about to choose between “measured” and “mistake.” If they become too easy into an economy that’s still running above capacity, we don’t just grind hi
Free Macro Tools: Neutral Rate Estimates
Every conversation about interest rates boils down to one question: what level keeps the economy steady, neither overheating nor stalling? Economists call this
Payrolls Don't Matter Anymore
The U.S. economy is breaking one of its oldest rules. For decades, growth and payrolls moved in lockstep: more jobs meant more output, and every jobs report off
The Labor Market Fake-out
The August Jobs Report May Be the Fed’s Biggest Test Yet Markets just got the weakest Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) print of the year: only 22,000 jobs added versus ex
Rivian: The Bull Thesis
We’ve been following Rivian for a while now, sharing quick thoughts on X and our podcast since early 2024, but it’s time to go deeper. In this piece, we’re layi
Seasonality Trends: Valuable or Useless?
Every September, financial media dust off the same charts: “The worst month for stocks,” “Sell in May and go away,” “Santa Claus rally.” Seasonality lore is as
Macro Update: The Labor Surprise Nobody Is Talking About
This Friday’s jobs report might be the most pivotal data release of the year, and not just because every labor print feels like “the most important one ever.” T
Bitcoin and Risk-On: The Conviction to Stay Long
Bitcoin is down 10% from its all-time high in less than a month. To most people, that looks like exhaustion. To us, it’s a signal. If you’ve followed us on X, y
Time for Rate Cuts?
It seems like the Fed has been in focus lately, specifically the current administration’s adamant calls for significantly lower rates. The market is expecting r
The Great Bull Market
Stocks are booming, the market is at all-time highs, and Bitcoin has broken a multi-month consolidation pattern. Topics like tariffs and the Fed have dominated
The Back Half Of 2025 Is Where Legends Are Made
It’s June 2025, and we’ve yet to see a Risk-On regime this year. With half a year to go, things can and will likely shift quickly, so stay strapped in your chai
How To Protect Yourself During The Bear Market Rally
As we near the halfway point of 2025, markets have offered plenty of noise but little net movement. Equities are flat on the year, despite dramatic swings acros
Are You Prepared for a Slowdown?
Last month, we explored the potential transition from a Risk-On regime to a negative growth regime. Fast forward to today: we’ve not only left Risk-On territory
Inflation, Credit, and Rates A Turning Point
THE SYSTEM We’re observing a noticeable acceleration in inflationary pressures across the System. Over recent weeks, growth strength has churned at persistently
Soft Landing Rate Cuts - 9.01.2024
OVERVIEW In a financial landscape marked by volatility and shifting probabilities, understanding the nuances of market regimes is more critical than ever. As we
Recessionary Cracks - 8.01.2024
OVERVIEW As we navigate the shifting tides of the financial markets, it's clear we're in the midst of a significant transition. Over the past month, our system
Bullish Risk-Off - 7.01.2024
OVERVIEW Navigating the current economic landscape can feel like deciphering an intricate puzzle. As we transition into a Risk-Off environment amidst the onset
Is The Bull Run Over - 05.08.24
OVERVIEW As we approach the midpoint of the year, with equity indices having pulled back off all-time highs and the ongoing tug-of-war between bulls and bears,
What’s Next for Inflation? - 03.13.24
OVERVIEW Inflation has significantly influenced market dynamics for the past two years, beginning its sharp rise in early 2021. It wasn't until the end of that
The QuantDeck - 01.09.24
Overview Over the past day, we introduced our new and improved daily report the QuantDeck, replacing our old Weather Report. Right now, you can see the System a
When Stage 4 - 11.01.23
As Stage 3 continues, the eagerness to prep for Stage 4 builds. Some of these things include longing gold, the dollar, and ultimately bonds. The Compound Landin
The Compound Landing - 08.20.23
THE SETUP A little over a year ago, many folks were pretty convinced that we were headed for a recession. The signs were there, like two back-to-back quarters o
Respect the Lag - 08.10.23
OVERVIEW: With the stock market well off the 52-week lows, many market participants are raising concerns that the Fed isn't nearly restrictive enough for the cu
FOMC Recap - 07.26.23
Todays FOMC turned out exactly as expected by us and the markets as evident by the low volatility in both the bond and equity markets throughout the event. Inte
The Next Leg - 07.17.23
With so many variables at large, let’s simplify the Market Radar message and lay out what we’re seeing as of right now. Soft Landing Let’s start with the curren
The Fed’s Soft Landing - 07.06.23
As we’ve heard Powell emphasize, the Fed has a primary objective of both maximum employment and price stability. We’ve seen one of these become unhinged over th
Inflation Forecasting - The Power of Breakevens 06.23.23
Breakeven inflation rates are a powerful tool. They’re completely inaccurate, they do not work as intended, and it's much easier for inflation to run hotter tha
Liquidity vs Collateral - The Money Market Crisis 06.14.23
With the financial industry abuzz over the upcoming supply shock resulting from the treasuries issuance wave to replenish the TGA (Treasury General Account), it
Liquidity vs Collateral - The Money Market Crisis 06.14.23
With the financial industry abuzz over the upcoming supply shock resulting from the treasuries issuance wave to replenish the TGA (Treasury General Account), it