MACRO LEDGER

Posts on global markets that combine analysis with proprietary insights.

What Happens When the Bear Case Fails to Escalate
Macro Updates

WHAT HAPPENS WHEN THE BEAR CASE FAILS TO ESCALATE

1/12/2026-Gamma
Read Analysis
2025 Annual Letter
Macro Updates

2025 ANNUAL LETTER

1/4/2026-Gamma
Read Analysis
How Systematic Trading Breaks the Emotion Loop
Macro Frameworks

HOW SYSTEMATIC TRADING BREAKS THE EMOTION LOOP

12/1/2025-Gamma
Read Analysis
When Tailwinds Disappear and the Headwinds Start to Bite
Macro Updates

WHEN TAILWINDS DISAPPEAR AND THE HEADWINDS START TO BITE

11/15/2025-Gamma
Read Analysis
What Risk-Off Really Means (and How We Profit From It)
Macro Frameworks

WHAT RISK-OFF REALLY MEANS (AND HOW WE PROFIT FROM IT)

11/3/2025-Gamma
Read Analysis
How We Plan to Play a Slowdown: Positioning for the Next Regime Shift
Macro Updates

HOW WE PLAN TO PLAY A SLOWDOWN: POSITIONING FOR THE NEXT REGIME SHIFT

10/28/2025-Gamma
Read Analysis
The Growing Evidence Behind a Global Risk-Off Turn
Macro Updates

THE GROWING EVIDENCE BEHIND A GLOBAL RISK-OFF TURN

10/17/2025-Arty
Read Analysis
From Strength to Stagflation: Inside the Market’s Quiet Regime Change
Macro Updates

FROM STRENGTH TO STAGFLATION: INSIDE THE MARKET’S QUIET REGIME CHANGE

10/11/2025-Gamma
Read Analysis
This Beat Covered Call ETFs
Macro Frameworks

THIS BEAT COVERED CALL ETFS

10/9/2025-Gamma
Read Analysis
Understanding Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Composition
Macro Frameworks

UNDERSTANDING GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) COMPOSITION

10/2/2025-Gamma
Read Analysis
When Growth Wobbles and Inflation Holds: What Comes Next?
Macro Updates

WHEN GROWTH WOBBLES AND INFLATION HOLDS: WHAT COMES NEXT?

9/24/2025-Gamma
Read Analysis
Everything You Need to Know About Today's FOMC
Macro Events

EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT TODAY'S FOMC

9/17/2025-Gamma
Read Analysis
This Is How Melt-Ups Start

THIS IS HOW MELT-UPS START

9/16/2025-Arty
Read Analysis
Free Macro Tools: Neutral Rate Estimates
Macro Frameworks

FREE MACRO TOOLS: NEUTRAL RATE ESTIMATES

9/14/2025-Gamma
Read Analysis
Payrolls Don't Matter Anymore

PAYROLLS DON'T MATTER ANYMORE

9/10/2025-Gamma
Read Analysis
The Labor Market Fake-out

THE LABOR MARKET FAKE-OUT

9/5/2025-Arty
Read Analysis
Rivian: The Bull Thesis

RIVIAN: THE BULL THESIS

9/4/2025-Gamma
Read Analysis
Seasonality Trends: Valuable or Useless?
Macro Frameworks

SEASONALITY TRENDS: VALUABLE OR USELESS?

9/3/2025-Gamma
Read Analysis
Macro Update: The Labor Surprise Nobody Is Talking About

MACRO UPDATE: THE LABOR SURPRISE NOBODY IS TALKING ABOUT

8/30/2025-Gamma
Read Analysis
Bitcoin and Risk-On: The Conviction to Stay Long

BITCOIN AND RISK-ON: THE CONVICTION TO STAY LONG

8/26/2025-Gamma
Read Analysis
Time for Rate Cuts?

TIME FOR RATE CUTS?

8/15/2025-Gamma
Read Analysis
The Great Bull Market

THE GREAT BULL MARKET

7/29/2025-Gamma
Read Analysis
The Back Half Of 2025 Is Where Legends Are Made

THE BACK HALF OF 2025 IS WHERE LEGENDS ARE MADE

6/28/2025-Gamma
Read Analysis
How To Protect Yourself During The Bear Market Rally

HOW TO PROTECT YOURSELF DURING THE BEAR MARKET RALLY

5/31/2025-Gamma
Read Analysis
Are You Prepared for a Slowdown?

ARE YOU PREPARED FOR A SLOWDOWN?

1/21/2025-Gamma
Read Analysis
Inflation, Credit, and Rates A Turning Point

INFLATION, CREDIT, AND RATES A TURNING POINT

12/10/2024-Gamma
Read Analysis
Soft Landing Rate Cuts - 9.01.2024

SOFT LANDING RATE CUTS - 9.01.2024

9/1/2024-Gamma
Read Analysis
Recessionary Cracks - 8.01.2024

RECESSIONARY CRACKS - 8.01.2024

8/1/2024-Gamma
Read Analysis
Bullish Risk-Off - 7.01.2024

BULLISH RISK-OFF - 7.01.2024

7/1/2024-Gamma
Read Analysis
Is The Bull Run Over - 05.08.24

IS THE BULL RUN OVER - 05.08.24

5/8/2024-Gamma
Read Analysis
What’s Next for Inflation? - 03.13.24

WHAT’S NEXT FOR INFLATION? - 03.13.24

3/13/2024-Gamma
Read Analysis
The QuantDeck - 01.09.24

THE QUANTDECK - 01.09.24

1/9/2024-Gamma
Read Analysis
When Stage 4 - 11.01.23

WHEN STAGE 4 - 11.01.23

11/1/2023-Gamma
Read Analysis
The Compound Landing - 08.20.23

THE COMPOUND LANDING - 08.20.23

8/20/2023-Gamma
Read Analysis
Respect the Lag - 08.10.23

RESPECT THE LAG - 08.10.23

8/10/2023-Gamma
Read Analysis
FOMC Recap - 07.26.23

FOMC RECAP - 07.26.23

7/26/2023-Gamma
Read Analysis
The Next Leg - 07.17.23

THE NEXT LEG - 07.17.23

7/17/2023-Gamma
Read Analysis
The Fed’s Soft Landing - 07.06.23

THE FED’S SOFT LANDING - 07.06.23

7/6/2023-Gamma
Read Analysis
Inflation Forecasting - The Power of Breakevens 06.23.23

INFLATION FORECASTING - THE POWER OF BREAKEVENS 06.23.23

6/23/2023-Gamma
Read Analysis
Liquidity vs Collateral - The Money Market Crisis 06.14.23

LIQUIDITY VS COLLATERAL - THE MONEY MARKET CRISIS 06.14.23

6/15/2023-Gamma
Read Analysis